It appears as if Israel is once again concocting plans to attack Lebanon, and while it’s military is superior to Lebanon’s official military, Isralei intelligence knows full-well that Hezbollah is in reality the force that it would have to contend with.
The assasination last week of Imad Mugniyah in Syria, though Mossad won’t claim responsisbility for it, was surely a hit carried out by Israel. And a direct hit it was, striking at a figure who still represents the strength of Hezbolla’s historic resistance culture in Lebanon, even though Hezbollah’s leader, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, has done much to distance hismelf and his organization today from characters like Mugniyah.
Indications are that Israel may be planning another strike into Lebanon this summer, just two years after Israel faced a historic defeat at the hands of Hezbollah in the 34 day war of Summer 2006. It would seem to be an opportune time, with Lebanon embroiled in what looks an awful lot like civil war. But appearances are not all they are cracked up to be.
An Israeli incursion into Lebanon would spell disaster for the Jewish state, as Hezbollah is well aware of its plans and will be well-prepared when and if the invasion materializes. An invasion of Lebanon would likely foment unity in Lebanon, albeit a short-lived and one-pointed variety of unity. It’s important here that none of the factions of Lebanon’s government would welcome an Israeli-US invasion. Fouad Sinora’s government, as corrupt as it is, has no love for the US or for Israel, and is only playing nice with US demands out of necessity. But it won’t back down in the face of imminent agression.
In addition to the countless horrors that another US/Israel-Lebanon war would bring to the people of Israel, Lebanon and Palestine, American observers should also recognize that such a conflict would also spell utter disappointment for those following the 2008 election campaigns. Supporters of John McCain will have to listen to his hawkish posturing, and those that support Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will undoubtedly hear their candidate disparaging the Lebanese resistance and giving unconditional support to "our Israeli allies" (even though Obama was once an outspoken critic of US/Israeli policy in the MIddle East).
No one will benefit from such a war – not Israel, not Lebanon, and not the US – though I’m sure the media would have a field day with it. Advantage: Ted Turner and Rupert Murdoch.