Honduras people’s beautiful gesture, makes a big difference in our America independency struggle.
Manuel Zelaya return to the country gave a new impulse to the resistance movement. The people continue to be very clear that any attempt to resolve the crisis of their country must start from the point where their political life was interrupted, namely: restitution of Zelaya as legitimate Honduras President and the placement in the next elections o a fourth ballot box, asking the people if they approve or not the convocation of a Constitutional Assembly. This question has already been answered for all practical purposes, the people has approved the convocation with their massive participation in the struggle.
Mainly because of the shackles impose on Zelaya by the Clinton-Arias plan, this second point is not to happen during the actual Zelaya term, but that was what was contemplated before the coup any way, yet having the current Constitution been subverted by the military coup d’état, a Constitutional reform must be carried on sooner rather than latter.
Two things can clearly be state regard the organization and function of the Western Society: the system (by name capitalism) is rotten if not plainly evil, judging by the results of it’s exertion for the last few centuries and it must be completely changed if civilization with human values is to survive for other 100 years.
Opposing this system, or better yet promoting changes for a better world, are many “popular” (meaning integrated by people‘s communities) movements, some with real grass route bases, others no so much.
General observations regard these movements are the facts that they, despite a lot “ink and paper” used, are disunited, their actions are not coordinated and by and large they are not cooperating among them. It’s of not wonder that progression, even if noticeable during the last 10-20 years, is rather slow, considering the rapid deterioration of life conditions in the whole world.
To be admired in the Honduras Popular Front of Resistance Against the Coup, are it‘s spontaneous, prompt, courageous, solid and efficient organization. The Front management has maintained the people united, pacifically organized, demonstrating without vacillation their repudiation to a de facto regime which usurped the power after the coup.
All of those things and more, rarely found realized any place else, are what is written as desirable in the progressive literature, yet, little if any is said about in the main communication or even in the alternative media, which with the exemplary exception of Democracy Now, are practically keeping a very low profile of the Honduras events.
Within the next two weeks, has to be some sort of agreement among the three parties -four if the international agencies are included, contending for reestablishing Constitutionality in Honduras. To name them: the people in resistance, Zelaya cabinet and advisors, the de facto authorities and the International institutions.
What will happen is anybody guess. What should happen is what the global South hope for. If real democracy, in whatever form, ensues, it shall gives a real impulse to the Latin America project of independency.
Going from most desirable to undesirable, the following scenarios come to mind:
1.- The National Front of Resistance against the coup acquire belligerency, both in the national political affairs and in the negotiation table. In this case, Zelaya is restituted to complete his presidential term interrupted on June 28/2009. The elections campaign is carried on during the usual 3 months, the elections are reschedule for March 2010 and whoever is elected next president of Honduras, takes charge on June 27, 2010. These schedules gives a chance to the Hondurans to organize fair elections, which then should be recognized by the whole international community with no problems. Also gives time to address the questions for a National Constitutional Assembly and legally deal with people who during the upheaval, may have broken the law, politically and otherwise.
Amnesty of any sort, might jeopardize one of the main struggle‘s intent: to end violence as a way to resolve differences. Pardon serving a higher purpose and conferred when peace is secured, is something else. Like people, after the genocide in Rwanda, are reported saying: forgiving not forgetting should be kept in mind.
This scenario is plausible but improbably, foreign interests are big hurtles to overcome, yet should be kept as a goal to which all Latin America and indeed the Global South must aspire.
2.- Manuel Zelaya is back to the presidential chair with or without the shackles imposed by the Clinton-Arias plan. He is to finish his term on Jan 27/2010 with the doubtful merit of legalizing the elections of Nov /2009 and no other glories but having struggle decently. The National Resistance Front is marginalized from the negotiations, but maybe some of it’s members along with people from the coup are included as members of the Reconciliation Government.
Amnesty is decree for every one. Hondurans with no time for fair election end with a new president most likely sympathetic to the foreings powers policies.
The Global South remains with the specter of further governmental violent takeovers
More than one hundred of resistance’s martyrs have got the peace of the cemeteries, their executioner are free on the cities streets. The nine oligarquik families are back to make profits any way they can and the people people is to endure another decades of inhuman exploitation.
This scenario as depressing as may look, is the most likely to happen in the beautiful Honduras of today (in example it‘s peaceful resistance).
If such happen, one more batlle has been lose, but the struggle keeps going. Where and when the next battle would be? Who knows, but it should happen, because it’s has been said that: intelligent human beingns when given the choice will invariable choose to be happy.
3.- The de facto government people carried on the illegal elections of Nov 29/2009. The majority of International Governments might refuse to recognize the new government, but few are liable to continue diplomatic relations with it, among them the ones who count the most. In that case, no sanctions directed to the responsible of the coup and their successor could be attempt and indiscriminate financial, commercial or any other blockades, if affecting the people, are things no to be look for.
A combination the elements consider above, could also be the final result of the conflict now raging in Honduras.
Scenario number 3, is less likely to happen, if any thing because the pretensions of decency from the international governmental institutions. But if does happen, the struggle instead of furthering the independency cause, had brought it back to be in last century security foreign imperial policies.
OSA delegates left Tegucigalpa last week after setting a negotiation table. Zelaya and the Resistencia Front‘s representatives have published 3 point for the agenda, the de facto regimen is apparently more interested in talking amnesty for all and the head lines this evening still are describing the regimen as not willing to negotiate. The problem is that the time for meaningful negotiations has practically ended, a meeting between the parties in conflict, schedule for tomorrow could decide the way in which the whole problem is to evolve.
How much of this is know to the general public here in the US, is in doubt, and if its unknown: how any one can have even a reasonable opinion, or to advocate for justice and peace in the continent?.
Honduras may be a weak and a poor country, but what happened there now, may be determinant in the long run, for what is to happen in the rest of Latin America and indeed in the Global South.