Making predictions in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict might be considered a particularly dangerous form of hubris, but I could hardly have guessed how soon my fears would be realised.
One of the main forecasts of my book was that Palestinians on both sides of the Green Line — those who currently enjoy Israeli citizenship and those who live as oppressed subjects of Israelâ€™s occupation — would soon find common cause as Israel tries to seal itself off from what it calls the Palestinian â€œdemographic threatâ€: that is, the moment when Palestinians outnumber Jews in the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River.
I suggested that
It was also closing off the last remaining avenue of a Right of Return for Palestinians by changing the law to make it all but impossible for Palestinians living in
The corollary of this Jewish fortress, I suggested, would be a sham Palestinian state, a series of disconnected ghettos that would prevent Palestinians from organising effective resistance, non-violent or otherwise, but which would give the Israeli army an excuse to attack or invade whenever they chose, claiming that they were facing an â€œenemy stateâ€ in a conventional war.
Another benefit for
I sketched out possible routes by which
* by redrawing the borders, using the wall, so that an area densely populated with Palestinian citizens of Israel known as the Little Triangle, which hugs the northern West Bank, would be sealed into the new pseudo-state;
* by continuing the process of corralling the
* by forcing Palestinian citizens living in the Galilee to pledge an oath of loyalty to
* and by stripping Arab Knesset members of their right to stand for election.
When I made these forecasts, I suspected that many observers, even in the Palestinian solidarity movement, would find my ideas improbable. I could not have realised how fast events would overtake prediction.
The first sign came in October with the addition to the cabinet of Avigdor Lieberman, leader of a party that espouses the ethnic cleansing not only of Palestinians in the occupied territories (an unremarkable platform for an Israeli party) but of Palestinian citizens too, through land swaps that would exchange their areas for the illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
Lieberman is not just any cabinet minister; he has been appointed deputy prime minister with responsibility for the â€œstrategic threatsâ€ that face
Lieberman has been widely presented as a political maverick, akin to the notorious racist Rabbi Meir Kahane, whose Kach party was outlawed in the late 1980s. That is a gross misunderstanding: Lieberman is at the very heart of the countryâ€™s rightwing establishment and will almost certainly be a candidate for prime minister in future elections, as Israelis drift ever further to the right.
Unlike Kahane, Lieberman has cleverly remained within the Israeli political mainstream while pushing its agenda to the very limits of what it is currently possible to say. Kadima and Labor urgently want unilateral separation from the Palestinians but are shy to spell out, both to their own domestic constituency and the international community, what separation will entail.
Lieberman has no such qualms. He is unequivocal: if
These arguments express the common mood among the Israeli public, one that has been cultivated since the eruption of the intifada in 2000 by endless talk among
Recent polls also reveal how fashionable racism has become in
A poll of students that was published last week suggests that racism is even stronger among young Jews. Three-quarters believed Palestinian citizens are uneducated, uncivilised and unclean, and a third are frightened of them. Richard Kupermintz of
Lieberman is simply riding the wave of such racism and pointing out the inevitable path separation must follow if it is to satisfy these kinds of prejudices. He may speak his mind more than his cabinet colleagues, but they too share his vision of the future. That is why only one minister, the dovish and principled Ophir Pines Paz of Labor, resigned over Ehud Olmertâ€™s inclusion of Lieberman in the cabinet.
Contrast that response with the uproar caused by the Labor leader Amir Peretzâ€™s appointment of the first Arab cabinet minister in
Raleb Majadele, a Muslim, is a senior member of the Labor party and a Zionist (what might be termed, in different circumstances, a self-hating Arab or an Uncle Tom), and yet his apppointment has broken an Israeli taboo: Arabs are not supposed to get too close to the centres of power.
Peretzâ€™s decision was entirely cynical. He is under threat on all fronts — from his coalition partners in Kadima and in Liebermanâ€™s Yisrael Beitenu, and from within his own party — and desperately needs the backing of Laborâ€™s Arab party members. Majadele is the key, and that is why Peretz gave him a cabinet post, even if a marginal one: Minister of Science, Culture and Sport.
But the right is deeply unhappy at Majadeleâ€™s inclusion in the cabinet. Lieberman called Peretz unfit to be defence minister for making the appointment and demanded that Majadele pledge loyalty to
A few Labor and Meretz MKs denounced these comments as racist. But more telling was the silence of Olmert and his Kadima party, as well as Binyamin Netanyhuâ€™s Likud, at Liebermanâ€™s outburst. The centre and right understand that Liebermanâ€™s views about Majadele, and Palestinian citizens more generally, mirror those of most Israeli Jews and that it would be foolhardy to criticise him for expressing them — let alone sack him.
In this game of â€œwho is the truer Zionistâ€, Lieberman can only grow stronger against his former colleagues in Kadima and Likud. Because he is free to speak his and their minds, while they must keep quiet for appearanceâ€™s sake, he, not they, will win ever greater respect from the Israeli public.
Meanwhile, all the evidence suggests that Olmert and the current government will implement the policies being promoted by Lieberman, even if they are too timid to openly admit that is what they are doing.
Some of those policies are of the by-now familiar variety, such as the destruction of 21 Bedouin homes, half the
These kind of official attacks against the indigenous Bedouin — who have been classified by the government as â€œsquattersâ€ on state lands — are a regular occurence, an attempt to force 70,000 Bedouin to leave their ancestral homes and relocate to deprived townships.
A more revealing development came this month, however, when it was reported in the Israeli media that the government is for the first time backing â€œloyaltyâ€ legislation that has been introduced privately by a Likud MK. Gilad Erdanâ€™s bill would revoke the citizenship of Israelis who take part in â€œan act that constitutes a breach of loyalty to the stateâ€, the latest in a string of proposals by Jewish MKs conditioning citizenship on loyalty to the Israeli state, defined in all these schemes very narrowly as a â€œJewish and democraticâ€ state.
Arab MKs, who reject an ethnic definition of
Lieberman himself suggested just such a loyalty scheme for Palestinian citizens last month during a trip to
Erdanâ€™s bill specifies acts of disloyalty that include visiting an â€œenemy stateâ€ — which, in practice, means just about any Arab state. Most observers believe that, after Erdanâ€™s bill has been redrafted by the Justice Ministry, it will be used primarily against the Arab MKs, who are looking increasingly beleaguered. Most have been repeatedly investigated by the Attorney-General for any comment in support of the Palestinians in the occupied territories or for visiting neighbouring Arab states. One, Azmi Bishara, has been put on trial twice for these offences.
Meanwhile, Jewish MKs have been allowed to make the most outrageous racist statements against Palestinian citizens, mostly unchallenged.
Former cabinet minister Effi Eitam, for example, said back in September: â€œThe vast majority of West Bank Arabs must be deported … We will have to make an additional decision, banning Israeli Arabs from the political system â€¦ We have cultivated a fifth column, a group of traitors of the first degree.â€ He was â€œwarnedâ€ by the Attorney-General over his comments (though he has expressed similar views several times before), but remained unrepetant, calling the warning an attempt to â€œsilenceâ€ him.
The leader of the opposition and former prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, the most popular politician in Israel according to polls, gave voice to equally racist sentiments this month when he stated that child allowance cuts he imposed as finance minister in 2002 had had a â€œpositiveâ€ demographic effect by reducing the birth rate of Palestinian citizens.
Arab MKs, of course, do not enjoy such indulgence when they speak out, much more legitimately, in supporting their kin, the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza, who are suffering under Israelâ€™s illegal occupation. Arab MK Ahmed Tibi, for example, was roundly condemned last week by the Jewish parties, including the most leftwing, Meretz, when he called on Fatah to â€œcontinue the struggleâ€ to establish a Palestinian state.
However, the campaign of intimidation by the government and Jewish members of the Knesset has failed to silence the Arab MKs or stop them visiting neighbouring states, which is why the pressure is being ramped up. If Erdanâ€™s bill becomes law — which seems possible with government backing — then the Arab MKs and the minority they represent will either be cut off from the rest of the Arab world once again (as they were for the first two decades of Israelâ€™s existence, when a military government was imposed on them) or threatened with the revocation of their citizenship for disloyalty (a move, it should be noted, that is illegal under international law).
It may not be too fanciful to see the current legislation eventually being extended to cover other â€œbreaches of loyaltyâ€, such as demanding democratic reforms of
Soon Arab MKs and their constituents may also be liable to having their citizenship revoked for campaigning, as many currently do, for a state of all its citizens. That certainly is the view of the eminent Israeli historian Tom Segev, who argued in the wake of the governmentâ€™s adoption of the bill: â€œIn practice, the proposed law is liable to turn all Arabs into conditional citizens, after they have already become, in many respects, second-class citizens. Any attempt to formulate an alternative to the Zionist reality is liable to be interpreted as a â€˜breach of faithâ€™ and a pretext for stripping them of their citizenship.â€
But it is unlikely to end there. I hesitate to make another prediction but, given the rapidity with which the others have been realised, it may be time to hazard yet another guess about where
The other day I was at a checkpoint near
I had heard that Palestinian citizens of
In April last year, at a cabinet meeting at which the Israeli government agreed to expel Hamas MPs from
Is it too much to suspect that before long, after
Lieberman doubtless knows the answer already.
Jonathan Cook is a writer and journalist living in Nazareth,