Certainly, authoritarian governments have been able to ignore their citizens in the formation of policy, which explains why many Arab governments supported the war on Iraq, even as many European democracies opposed it. But even for a government like Jordan’s, which knows that political reform is in its long-term interest, this comes at a cost: more repression. To pre-empt public anger from turning into a real threat, governments turn to repression, which in turn perpetuates conditions for militancy. Although democracy in the long term is good for the region, two problems remain in the short term. First, transitions to democracy are usually long, volatile and unpredictable. In that sense, issues that are close to the hearts of the public are even more exploitable by competing politicians. Second, even if democracy is attained, it is not clear how this could translate into stronger American-Arab relations if differences on core issues remain. The case of Turkey’s democracy blocking the launching of United States troops from its soil in the Iraq war is a telling example.
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